By Emeka Blast 
Buhari’s Exit Leaves 12 Million Loyalists — Who Claims Them Now?
The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari on July 13, 2025, in a London clinic at age 82 has triggered intense speculation about the future of his formidable 12 million-strong voter base, a loyal bloc that shaped Nigeria’s political landscape for two decades. Known as “Mai Gaskiya” (the honest one) and “Baba” to his supporters, Buhari’s cult-like following in northern Nigeria, rooted in his austere image and anti-corruption stance, remains a coveted prize as the 2027 elections loom. Political analysts and party strategists are now grappling with the question: Who will inherit this influential vote bank?
Buhari’s appeal, built on perceived integrity and discipline, secured him 12,214,853 votes in the 2011 election despite limited party structures, and propelled the All Progressives Congress (APC) to victory in 2015, marking Nigeria’s first defeat of an incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan. His base, largely concentrated among the northern “talakawa” (commoners), held firm through economic hardships and security challenges during his 2015-2023 presidency. However, with his passing, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) faction he led has fractured, with key loyalists defecting to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and other opposition platforms, signaling a potential realignment.
Prominent CPC figures like former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, ex-Secretary to the Government Babachir Lawal, and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami have joined the ADC, with Malami’s defection before Buhari’s death seen as a strategic move to court this bloc. The ADC’s interim National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, claimed, “Most of Buhari’s loyalists are already with us. The North is with our party,” fueling tensions with the APC, which hopes to retain the bloc under President Bola Tinubu. However, Tinubu’s political machinery, rooted in the Southwest, lacks the emotional resonance Buhari commanded in the North, analysts note.
Other contenders include Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose Kwankwasiyya movement is strong in Kano but lacks broader northern appeal, and Atiku Abubakar, whose repeated presidential bids have failed to match Buhari’s mass trust. Some X posts, like one from @edon_bassey, suggest Labour Party’s Peter Obi could capture this base, citing his 2023 momentum, though his Southern Christian identity may limit his reach. Meanwhile, @Atiscoira speculated that El-Rufai has “assumedly inherited” the votes, reflecting the fluid contest.
Elder statesman Prof. Ango Abdullahi told Daily Trust, “I don’t see anyone assuming [Buhari’s] role yet,” emphasizing the unique mythology of Buhari as a “moral archetype.” Olu Allen, writing for TheCable, argued that assuming these 12 million voters will automatically shift to the APC or any northern candidate underestimates their emotional loyalty to Buhari’s persona, not just his party. The vacuum could fragment the bloc, making it a swing force in 2027.
