By Emeka Blast 
How Kwankwaso’s Upcoming Decision Could Influence 2027 Politics
As Nigeria’s political landscape heats up ahead of the 2027 general elections, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the national leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), stands at a pivotal crossroads that could reshape the nation’s political future. Speculation is rife that Kwankwaso, a former Kano State governor and 2023 presidential candidate, may defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), a move that could redefine alliances, shift power dynamics, and significantly influence the outcome of the 2027 presidential race.
The APC, grappling with internal fractures and public discontent over economic challenges and insecurity, sees Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya Movement—a formidable political force with a cult-like following in Kano and parts of the North-West—as a strategic asset to bolster its northern stronghold. Reports suggest President Bola Tinubu is considering Kwankwaso as a potential vice-presidential running mate for 2027, replacing incumbent Vice President Kashim Shettima, to secure Kano’s 5.9 million registered voters and counter opposition coalitions led by figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. The resignation of former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, Kwankwaso’s long-time rival, on June 1, 2025, is widely viewed as a calculated step to clear the path for Kwankwaso’s integration, despite resistance from some Kano APC loyalists like Minister of State Yusuf Ata.
Kwankwaso’s influence, rooted in his Kwankwasiyya Movement’s estimated three million supporters—known for their red-cap loyalty—extends beyond Kano to Jigawa, Kaduna, and Katsina. His 997,279 votes in the 2023 presidential election, outpacing Tinubu’s 517,341 in Kano, underscore his electoral weight. Al Jazeera noted his ability to mobilize youth and his focus on education and welfare policies, drawing parallels to Kano’s revered socialist leader Aminu Kano. A potential APC defection could position Kwankwaso as a northern kingmaker or even a future presidential contender in 2031, leveraging the party’s resources and national platform.
However, the move carries risks. NigerianEye suggests Kwankwaso could be used as a “disposable tool” to secure northern votes for Tinubu’s re-election, only to be sidelined post-2027. His rivalry with Ganduje, who dismissed Kwankwaso’s relevance in Kano, complicates his integration, with Ata claiming Kwankwasiyya’s red caps are “hardly seen” in mosques anymore. Kwankwaso himself has denied defection rumours, urging the public to trust only his official statements, as reported by Legit.ng on May 17, 2025. Yet, NNPP’s Kano State Chairman, Hashimu Dungurawa, vowed that loyalists would follow Kwankwaso to the APC if he defects, signaling unwavering support.
Alternatively, Kwankwaso could remain with the NNPP, consolidating his third-force status. At a February 2025 NNPP meeting, National Chairman Ajuki Ahmad declared Kwankwaso the party’s 2027 presidential candidate, predicting victory and dismissing internal challenges as “negligible.” Posts on X reflect strong grassroots support, with @Minევ
System: Minikothe3rd calling Kwankwaso “the only solution to Nigeria’s problem” in 2027, though others like @Waspapping_ warned his candidacy could split opposition votes, aiding Tinubu’s re-election.
The 2023 election, where Kwankwaso finished fourth, highlighted his regional strength but limited national reach, per BBC. A merger with Peter Obi’s Labour Party was once considered but rejected, and recent talks with APC figures like Rauf Aregbesola suggest broader coalition-building. P.M. News reported a February 2025 meeting with Aregbesola, sparking speculation of a strategic realignment. Kwankwaso’s decision—join the APC, lead the NNPP, or forge an opposition coalition—could either fracture the opposition or create a unified front to challenge the APC’s dominance, making him a pivotal figure in Nigeria’s evolving political chessboard.
