By Emeka Blast 
Here’s a detailed newspaper-style report on the critical drop in Indus River flows from India into Pakistan’s Sindh province:
1. Sharp Decline in River Flow
- New data from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reveals a 17% reduction in water discharged into Sindh from India’s western rivers—including the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus tributaries—first half of June 2025, compared to the same period last year.
- Two of Pakistan’s largest reservoirs, Mangla and Tarbela, have reached “dead levels,” meaning inflows are now lower than outflows—signaling critical depletion.
2. India’s Strategic Curtailment
- On April 23, 2025, India indefinitely suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.
- Home Minister Amit Shah announced today that India has no plans to restore the treaty and will divert water previously destined for Pakistan to Rajasthan via a new canal.
- Independent reports highlight India’s closure of gates at Baglihar and Salal dams—earlier than usual—to boost local storage at the expense of downstream flow.
- Major canal expansions—such as the Ranbir Canal doubling—could reduce Pakistan’s water by an additional 5–10% in the short term and more in the long term.
3. Impact on Sindh’s Agriculture and Ecosystem
- Lower barrage flows: At Guddu, inflows/outflows are balanced at ~26,117 cusecs, but Sukkur’s inflow is 18,810 cusecs against just 6,190 cusecs outflow—barely enough to support Kharif crops.
- Nara and Rohri Canals are receiving roughly 45% of their typical water, jeopardizing cotton, sugarcane, rice, and mango production.
- The Indus Delta has seen >90% decline in freshwater inflows, contributing to mangrove loss, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and fishermen’s plummeting catches.
4. Sindh’s Response: Protests and Legal Pushback
- Weekly protests have erupted across Sindh’s key cities: Hyderabad, Sukkur, and Karachi, accusing federal and Punjab authorities of executing “water theft”
- The April 18–29 Babarloi sit‑in saw civil society, lawyers, and political activists shutting down highways and demanding cancellation of six canal projects under the “Green Pakistan” agenda.
- Sindh’s Chief Minister, Murad Ali Shah, warned that Punjab’s canal diversions violated the 1991 Water Accord and posed a grave threat to Sindh’s agrarian survival.
5. Pakistan’s Strategy: Diplomacy, Law, and Diversification
- Pakistan is exploring international legal recourse through the International Court of Justice, Permanent Court of Arbitration, and appeals via the World Bank, which originally brokered the treaty.
- Domestically, there is a push toward canal infrastructure, groundwater pumping, and crop diversification, though these measures face high costs and environmental uncertainties.
- The IRSA cautions of up to 21% water shortage during early Kharif (May–June) and 7% in the late season (June–Sept) if inflows remain low.
📌 Why This Matters
| Issue | Implication |
|---|---|
| Food Security | 80% of Pakistani farmland, including vital crops like cotton, rice, and sugarcane, depends on Indus water. Yield reductions threaten rural incomes and export earnings. |
| Ecological Collapse | Freshwater loss in the Indus Delta undermines mangroves, fisheries, and resilience to sea-level rise . |
| Political Instability | Inter-provincial tension between Sindh and Punjab, coupled with strained Indo-Pak relations, may spark a broader regional crisis . |
| Security Risk | Pakistan warns that water manipulation may be viewed as an “act of war,” adding to nuclear-age hostilities . |
📰 In Summary
A 17% drop in Indus flows highlights a new era of hydro-political tension.
- India is leveraging treaty suspension and ramping up dam and canal projects to secure its own irrigational interests.
- Sindh faces an existential crisis: withering crops, vanishing deltas, and mounting social unrest.
- Pakistan is cornered by diplomacy, law, and infrastructure demands—none of which offer easy or rapid fixes.
With downstream livelihoods, ecology, and regional stability at stake, the coming months will be pivotal. Whether dialogue, international adjudication, or conflict defines the next chapter remains uncertain.
